Clogston leads both season money lists. Hayenga is $322,500 back in net; defending champion Tank is $645,000 back, with one round left. The Cup is beyond reach on the standard payout scale. The Green Jacket is still undecided.
Saturday, October 3 · Cedar Irons (Northshore) · First tee 8:57 AM
Pat’s October 1 update: Tee times moved up six minutes. White tees · Summer rules · $25 skins to JJ on arrival. Final times & scoring details →
Season titles go to the highest accumulated SONY totals: gross for the Commissioner’s Cup, net for the Green Jacket. Saturday’s two-man combined-net skins are a separate contest.
Seven gross wins in eight events. $5,600,000 banked. His $895,000 lead over Hayenga is bigger than a standard $800,000 event win. Under the posted payout scale, the gross chase is out of runway.
After titles in 2024 and 2025, he has secured a third straight Cup on the standard payout scale.
Second in net: $3,915,000. Clogston leads at $4,237,500. Hayenga needs to gain more than $322,500 on him in Saturday’s individual net payouts to move ahead. He tees off at 9:33.
His first Green Jacket is within reach. Whether Clogston receives any finale credit makes a substantial difference to the chase.
Third in net: $3,592,500. Tank trails Clogston by $645,000 and Hayenga by $322,500. He must pass both in the final season totals to keep the jacket. He tees off at 8:57.
The model gives him an 8.9% title share if Clogston earns no more points. If Clogston receives $270,000 in substitute credit, Tank cannot catch him—even with an $800,000 win.
Standings: September 13 rankings; champions: official archives; field: September 19 draw. Clogston is not listed; that does not confirm he will earn $0. League rules allow last-place credit for a paid absent member using a non-member substitute. Final net totals will decide the jacket. Full money lists →
These percentages forecast Saturday’s individual low gross and low net, using a million simulated rounds and 203 recorded player-rounds from seven events. Winning the finale and winning a season title are different outcomes.
Modeled share of Saturday’s low-gross win. Hayenga leads this forecast among the posted 20 players; Clogston is not on that tee sheet.
Modeled share of Saturday’s low-net win; 13.4% for low gross. Kibbee can win the individual round, but his season total is too far behind to catch Clogston for the jacket.
Modeled share of Saturday’s low-net win; a top-three net finish in 13.2% of runs. These are individual round forecasts, separate from the two-man skins.
Individual event forecasts, based on the September 19 field. Tied wins split the model's credit equally. These percentages are entertainment estimates; the million runs reduce computer noise, not golf's capacity to humiliate us.
If Clogston gets no more SONY money: the modeled season-title shares are Hayenga 82.9%, Tank 8.9%, Clogston 8.2%. Even with no further points for Clogston, Tank’s defense succeeds in fewer than one in ten modeled finales.
If Clogston receives $270,000 in last-place substitute credit: the model flips to Clogston 59.9%, Hayenga 40.1%; Tank cannot catch that total on the standard payout scale. That would put Clogston at $4,507,500; Tank’s maximum possible total is $4,392,500.
Two conditional scenarios using the same million rounds, the posted 20-player field, and standard payouts. Clogston's attendance, payment, and substitute eligibility are unconfirmed. The $270,000 scenario assumes twentieth-place credit. A changed field, different credit, or his return changes the forecast. Model ties share title credit; league tiebreaks are not assumed.
Compare two players’ simulated 18-hole scores. This measures who shoots the lower score on Saturday; it does not compare their season totals or jacket chances.
Share of head-to-head wins on the selected score, with ties split evenly. This is separate from winning the whole field or the season title. * denotes fewer than three recorded rounds; those estimates are especially uncertain.
| Player | Past rounds | Gross win | Net win | Net top 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Hayenga | 6 | 23.8% | 14.0% | 32.1% |
| Pat Bangasser | 7 | 14.2% | 7.5% | 26.7% |
| Todd Kibbee | 5 | 13.4% | 10.7% | 30.1% |
| Tanor Johnson | 5 | 13.0% | 6.8% | 25.9% |
| Chris Tank | 6 | 10.6% | 8.4% | 27.2% |
| Matt Uhlar | 5 | 5.5% | 1.7% | 8.7% |
| Tom Mahaffey | 5 | 5.1% | 3.8% | 16.4% |
| George Siemens * | 1 | 4.8% | 8.6% | 24.9% |
| Peter Quaeck * | 2 | 2.8% | 2.4% | 10.5% |
| Jeff Johnson | 4 | 1.6% | 4.0% | 16.2% |
| Trevor Johnson | 3 | 1.2% | 3.7% | 13.2% |
| Rick Haughian | 5 | 0.8% | 6.2% | 24.1% |
| Todd Thoreson | 4 | 0.8% | 2.7% | 9.9% |
| Warren Berger | 6 | 0.6% | 7.8% | 26.6% |
| Rick Loya | 6 | 0.6% | 2.8% | 10.5% |
| Bob Sikma * | 2 | 0.5% | 5.2% | 18.8% |
| Bill Morgan | 4 | 0.3% | <0.1% | 0.4% |
| Fred Miller | 4 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 2.4% |
| Steve Tarr | 6 | 0.1% | 2.4% | 13.2% |
| Bill McCarson | 4 | <0.1% | 0.8% | 3.7% |
* George Siemens (one round), Peter Quaeck and Bob Sikma (two each) have thin histories. The model gives them broader uncertainty. Top three includes ties; win percentages split ties. Rounding can keep columns from adding to exactly 100%.
Actually run: 1,000,000 complete 20-player fields, seed 20261003. Inputs are the published gross and net scores from Chambers Bay, Appletree, Maplewood, West Seattle, Echo Falls, Snohomish and Cedarcrest: 203 player-rounds. Bellingham's multi-round format is excluded.
We compare each score with that event's middle score, then blend a player's form toward the field average using three prior rounds. Round-to-round variation comes from the recorded results, with more uncertainty for short histories. Gross and net scores move together in each simulated player's round. Scores are rounded to whole strokes; tied places share the relevant SONY payouts.
This is a simple form model, not a Northshore course model. Changing field strength can affect the comparisons. It does not know current course handicaps, weather, injuries, which driver you bought Tuesday, or whether a breakfast sandwich is currently resolving a personal crisis. Pat confirmed two-man combined-net skins on October 1. These forecasts cover individual scores and the two stated title scenarios; they do not model hole-by-hole team skins.
See the complete simulation results and source data · The Oracle's Echo Falls predictions · The evidence against it
Pat’s final update, October 1: all five tee times move up six minutes, beginning at 8:57 AM. The September 19 draw below has been updated with the new times: ten teams of two, five groups at nine-minute intervals. Check the official pairings for any further changes before the round.
Green fee: $82 · Cart not included · Driving range available.
On arrival: give $25 for the 2026 Skins Game to Jeff Johnson (JJ).
Two-man combined net: add both partners’ net scores on each hole. If two teams tie on a hole, they split the skin. If three or more teams tie, that skin carries over.
Payout is immediately after the fifth group finishes. Have your scorecards completed with:
Tank begins the finale third in the season net standings, $645,000 behind Clogston.
Berger is fourth in season net, $837,500 behind Clogston—beyond the standard $800,000 maximum award.
Matt Uhlar was on the winning teams at Echo Falls and Cedarcrest.
Jeff Johnson won the Bellingham Calcutta with Tank.
Hayenga starts the final group second in season net, $322,500 behind Clogston.
Matt Uhlar, Greg Seeley, Rick Haughian and Erik Harris won with 128 Stableford points. Chris Clogston took low gross at 75; Harris took low net at 63. Both the team and gross winners were still behind through sixteen holes.
Read the Cedarcrest RecapGross: Clogston. Again. Chris Clogston posted 77 for his sixth gross win of the season — at this point the Commissioner's Cup engraver is just working in pencil until October. Jon Hayenga's 80 took second, the league's most faithful pursuer keeping the gap honest, and Gray Griswold's 82 claimed third — and Griswold's day was only getting started.
Net: a crown shared. Cam Kashfia and Griswold both signed for 71 — Kashfia going back-to-back after his Echo Falls 70, Griswold completing the day's rare treble: third in gross, a share of first in net, and the team title. Warren Berger's 72 took third outright, the strokes earning their keep as ever.
Team: Griswold & Berger, 61. The 11:39 partners lapped the field by two over a three-way pileup at 63 — Tanor Johnson & Kashfia, Hayenga & Tom Alvis, and Tom Colleran & Lucas Hufford all a card-flip short. $120 to the winners, $60 apiece to the trio, and nothing but memories for everyone else.
The margins: the sixteen-team sheet became fourteen by Saturday, and with twenty-seven players making an odd number, Jerry Nakata pulled honest double duty on two teams. Bill Morgan shot 108 and earned $200,000 in SONY leaderboard credit. And Hayenga stuck the 13th to 4' 2" for the pin of the afternoon.
The 1-2-3 best ball went to the 10:30 group — Gray Griswold, Jeff Johnson, Matt Uhlar and Mike Woerner at 133, clear by two — after the Clubhouse Oracle simulated a million rounds and picked them fourth. Cam Kashfia's 70 took low net, Chris Clogston's 75 low gross, and the algorithm's one framed-and-hung call was the basement. The full reckoning is preserved on the event page.
Three days, three courses, one runaway. Tank & Jeff Johnson led the $3,040 Calcutta wire-to-wire, closing at 284 — six clear of the Fagan brothers. Berger & Mischke's 89 at Lake Padden was the low round of the entire trip. The complete 54-hole leaderboard, championship payouts, and round-by-round notebook are preserved on the event page.